Key findings for England
1
Demand is forecast to stay broadly stable.
Adult social care counts for adults with a learning disability are projected to move from 137,210 in 2025 to 142,276 in 2035 (+3.7%).
2
Related welfare and education indicators grow faster.
DLA, PIP and EHC plans are all forecast to increase more strongly than adult social care counts.
3
Children in Need moves in the opposite direction.
CIN LD is forecast to fall from 19,405 in 2025 to 14,906 in 2035. This shift needs further exploration.
4
Forecasts should be read as long-term direction.
Prediction intervals widen, so the key message is the overall trend rather than exact yearly values.
People
Number of people in the LD population recorded against each welfare indicator. Figures to 2025 are recorded; later years are modelled.
Adult Social Care recipientsEducation, Health & Care plansDisability Living AllowancePersonal Independence PaymentChildren in NeedSolid = recorded · Dashed = forecast
Disability Living Allowance is an order of magnitude larger than the other indicators, so the same four smaller series are repeated below on their own scale.
Adult Social Care recipientsEducation, Health & Care plansPersonal Independence PaymentChildren in NeedSolid = recorded · Dashed = forecast
Education, Health & Care plans (LD)
151,874
↑ +11.8% since 2018
Children in Need (LD)
19,405
↓ -12.2% since 2018
Disability Living Allowance (LD)
389,837
↑ +91.2% since 2018
Personal Independence Payment (LD)
146,620
↑ +44.5% since 2018
Adult Social Care recipients (LD)
137,210
↑ +10.6% since 2018
Values shown are for 2025, with the change since 2018.
Headline figures
| Year | Adult Social Care recipients | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 124,035 | recorded |
| 2021 | 125,480 | recorded |
| 2025 | 137,210 | recorded |
| 2030 | 136,392 | forecast |
| 2035 | 142,276 | forecast |
Download the England forecast
The full England series, including 80% prediction intervals, is free to download.
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