How to read these forecasts
What is forecasting?
Forecasting uses patterns in recorded data to estimate what could happen in the future. These forecasts examine how the number of people identified by adult social care and related welfare services has changed over time. Statistical models then extend these patterns to 2035.
A forecast is not an exact prediction. Future demand may be affected by changes in policy, services, population needs and the way information is recorded.
The following points will help you understand the uncertainty in the forecasts and interpret the results appropriately.
Four things to remember
Keep these points in mind when exploring the national, regional and local authority forecasts.
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Forecasts are produced independently
Each forecast is based on the patterns found in that dataset. Local data can vary more than national data, so trends may differ between areas.
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Prediction intervals show uncertainty
The shaded area shows the range within which future values are likely to fall. A wider shaded area means there is greater uncertainty.
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Forecasts are updated each year
Adult social care is complex and changes over time. The forecasts will therefore change as new data and evidence become available.
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Focus on the longer-term trend
Use the forecasts to understand the overall direction of change, particularly when planning services up to 2035.
Understanding the chart
- Recorded data
- Forecast
- Prediction interval