How to read these forecasts
Forecasting is uncertain. These points will help you interpret the results.
1. Forecasts are built independently
Each forecast uses different patterns in the data. Local areas are noisier than national data, so trends may differ slightly.
2. Prediction intervals show uncertainty
The shaded area shows the range within which the true values are likely to fall. Wider bands mean less certainty.
3. Forecasts update each year
Adult social care is complex and changes over time, so forecasts change as new data and evidence become available.
4. Focus on the long term
Use the forecasts to understand the direction of travel, especially to 2035.
Understanding the chart
Actuals
Forecast
Prediction interval
The solid line shows actual values. The dashed line shows the forecast. The shaded area shows the prediction interval (uncertainty).