What will adult social care look like in 2035?
Explore forecasts for adults with a learning disability across England, its regions and local authority areas.
Use recorded trends and forecasts to support the planning and commissioning of adult social care services.
Key findings for England
Adult social care demand is predicted to remain relatively stable, but expenditure is expected to rise considerably.
-
People
137,210
Adults with a learning disability received long-term adult social care support in England in 2025.
-
Expenditure
£7.18bn
Was spent on long-term adult social care for people with a learning disability in England in 2025.
-
2035 forecast
£13.25bn
Projected adult social care expenditure for people with a learning disability in England by 2035.
An increase of 84% from 2025
Explore your area
Demand for adult social care differs across England. The website provides forecasts for national, regional and local authority areas, allowing you to explore the patterns most relevant to your community.
- 146 Local authorities
- 9 English regions
- 2018–2025 Recorded data
- To 2035 Forecasts
What would you like to explore?
People and demand
Explore recorded and forecast numbers for adult social care and related welfare services.
Adult social care expenditure
Explore how spending on long-term adult social care for people with a learning disability could change up to 2035.
About the research
Find out how lived experience, government data and statistical modelling were brought together to create these forecasts.