About the research
Forecasting the future of adult social care
This website presents forecasts of future demand for adult social care services for people with a learning disability in England. It provides forecasts for England, the nine English regions and 146 local authorities.
Dr Nakita Singh developed the forecasting method at the University of Bristol during a doctoral studentship funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research School for Social Care Research.
How were the forecasts created?
The lived experiences of people with a learning disability are at the heart of this research.
The research began by exploring how young people with a learning disability thought their needs might change as they became adults. This was undertaken through the Moving On project, in partnership with the West of England Centre for Inclusive Living (WECIL) and Misfits Theatre Company.
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Listening to lived experience
Using inclusive research methods, young people with a learning disability shared their experiences and views about the future. Their knowledge informed an analysis of the welfare system.
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Understanding the welfare system
The research identified welfare benefits that people with a learning disability are likely to use. It examined the information collected and how the data were structured. Five government datasets were suitable for analysis at local authority level.
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Forecasting future demand
The data were used to analyse historical trends across England, its regions and local authority areas. These trends were used to forecast how demand for adult social care services is likely to change up to 2035, based on expected changes in other welfare benefits.
Data used in the forecasts
Five government datasets provided information about people with a learning disability at national, regional and local authority level.
- ASC_LD
- Adult social care Adults with a learning disability receiving long-term adult social care support. Source: NHS England, Adult Social Care Activity and Finance Report.
- PIP_LD
- Personal Independence Payment Working-age adults entitled to PIP whose main recorded disability was a learning disability. Source: Department for Work and Pensions, Stat-Xplore.
- DLA_LD
- Disability Living Allowance Children entitled to DLA whose main disabling condition was recorded as a learning difficulty. Source: Department for Work and Pensions, Stat-Xplore.
- EHC_LD
- Education, Health and Care plans Children and young people with an EHC plan whose main need was a moderate, severe, or profound and multiple learning difficulty. Source: Department for Education, Special Educational Needs in England.
- CIN_LD
- Children in Need Children within the Children in Need data who were recorded as having a learning disability. Source: Department for Education, Children in Need Census.
From recorded data to forecasts
Recorded data were analysed to understand how the number of people identified by each system had changed over time. Different statistical models suitable for analysing numbers of people were tested, and the models that best represented the recorded patterns were selected.
Separate forecasts were produced for England, each English region and each local authority because patterns of demand can differ between areas.